Early Warning and Early Action in the IGAD Region: Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning Approaches to Support EW-EA

Report cover thumbnail

Predictive analytics (PA) for early warning systems hold great potential for East Africa EW-EA information systems. Although the potential of PA for food security early warning has not yet been reached, numerous projects are in development or are in the “proof of concept” phase.

PA has recently received a great deal of interest in the practitioner, researcher, and donor communities because it offers a way to synthesizing large amounts of data to generate diagnostic evidence. PA can be used at multiple stages in the humanitarian diagnostic and analysis system to predict hazards such as future drought or predict outcomes such as future food security status.

The successful incorporation of predictive analytics into a humanitarian diagnostics system will require modelers, analysts and decisionmakers to make choices about what their objectives for the model are, and what they prioritize in their models.

The focus of this review is on predictive analytics for food security EW-EA and resilience. We provide a brief overview of how the techniques of machine learning can support predictive analytics. We then highlight several significant decisions and discuss the implications of these decisions for achieving modeling objectives. Finally, we present an overview on selected predictive analytic models that focus on food security and related hazards.

This is Report 3 in a multi-part report:

  • The Executive Summary provides a brief overview of the all the reports.
  • Report 1 provides the background to the study, a brief conceptual overview, the main findings of the study, and the recommendations to FAO and IGAD.
  • Report 2 provides a description of existing regional and national EW-EA systems.







Thumbnail image of report cover

This study examines how anticipatory action was perceived and experienced among Ethiopians living with drought alongside other crises.

Thumbnail image of cover

This learning brief explores the continuity and changes to livelihoods in select sites in Isiolo and Marsabit Counties, Kenya, and reviews the implications of the continuity and the changes on the drivers of child acute malnutrition.

Thumbnail image of cover

This learning brief presents preliminary findings on strategic mobility and its nutritional benefits to pastoral and agropastoral communities in select sites in Isiolo and Marsabit Counties, Kenya.

Thumbnail of Report "Do Famine Declarations Really Lead to Increased Funding?

This policy brief examines the relationship between famine declarations and funding since 2011. It shows that, with that one exception, there is little evidence that famine declarations actually result in a rapid increase in funding.

Image of Brief Cover: Actingin in Advance of Flooding

In 2022 UN OCHA led a pilot anticipatory action intervention in South Sudan. This brief presents UN actors’ perceptions of this intervention.

Report cover thumbnail

This report provides insights and perspectives from participatory workshops with displaced female youth in the Kurdistan region of the Republic of Iraq (KRI).

Load more