Erin Coughlan de Perez published two articles on how we can better use forecasts
Erin Coughlan de Perez recently published two articles in academic journals.
In Disasters, she teamed up with colleagues to publish an article on the effectiveness of anticipatory support for herders in Mongolia. Based on forecasts of an extreme winter, humanitarian agencies provided cash and livestock inputs to herders, and this study examines how those inputs supported livelihoods. They found that providing support earlier resulted in better outcomes, encouraging an anticipatory approach. Read “The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia.”
In the International Journal of Forecasting, Erin and colleagues identified best practices in three fields (weather forecasts, climate change projections, and epidemiological predictions) that can be adopted by the others, which can be used to inform each field separately as well as to facilitate a more effective combined use for the management of compound and evolving risks. Read “Epidemiological versus meteorological forecasts: Best practice for linking models to policymaking.”