In January 2022, the Mozambique Red Cross activated its anticipatory action (AA) protocol in response to tropical storm Ana, distributing non-food items to 855 people in the Mocuba district of Mozambique.

In a study published in the Journal of International Humanitarian Action, researchers at University Eduardo Mondlane and Tufts University examined the effectiveness of this intervention. Komal Rathod, Erin Coughlan de Perez, and Carolyn Van Sant from the Feinstein International Center were part of the team.

Using propensity score matching, the study found no statistically significant differences in health outcomes or asset losses during the flooding event when comparing AA beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries.

The authors suggest that this outcome may be due to late intervention timing or the limited utility of the distributed items. They emphasize the need for anticipatory action systems to focus on timely and context-specific logistical investments to achieve greater impact.

This research was conducted as part of the work conducted by the Academic Alliance for Anticipatory Action, with sponsorship from USAID.

Read the open-access paper.