El Niño events have long been linked to low rainfall in Southern Africa, with seasonal rainfall forecasts now included in agricultural advisories for farmers.

Although the connection between El Niño and drought presents challenges for farmers, little is known about how this information impacts their agricultural decisions on a larger scale.

In a recent study published in Climate Services, Erin Coughlan de Perez and co-authors analyzed subnational data on cropping areas and yields to investigate how El Niño knowledge and seasonal forecasts influence farming practices in Southern Africa.

The findings reveal that in Lesotho and parts of South Africa, maize and sorghum planting areas decrease when an El Niño event coincides with a dry season start. Additionally, droughts tied to El Niño result in worse yields compared to other droughts.

These results suggest farmers may reduce cropping areas or turn to alternative income sources during El Niño years. However, no clear link was found between yield improvement and forecast accuracy.

Read the open-access paper in Climate Services