A new study analyzing patterns in recent famines and near-famine crises reveals how multiple interacting factors converge to create distinct pathways into famine, offering insights for earlier intervention.

Published in Food Policy, the research by Daniel Maxwell, Merry Fitzpatrick, Paul Howe, and colleagues examines four cases across Somalia and South Sudan between 2011 and 2020, identifying three primary famine trajectories: a sudden “cliff-edge” collapse (Somalia 2011), gradual “stepwise deterioration” (South Sudan 2017), and “arrested deterioration” where crises worsen but stop short of famine (Somalia 2017).

The analysis reveals that famines emerge when severe drivers — conflict, drought, economic collapse — coincide with critical “holds” (barriers to assistance, restricted mobility) and overwhelmed coping strategies. Trajectories can be detected before mortality spikes occur, enabling more targeted, earlier humanitarian responses.

By tracking how factors interact over time and identifying tipping points, policymakers could implement prevention measures addressing underlying drivers rather than simply responding to declared famines. Integrating trajectory analysis into existing food security systems could strengthen prevention efforts globally.

Read the open-access paper in Food Policy