A new study published by Feinstein Research Director Erin Coughlan Perez and co-authors in Weather and Climate Extremes reveals that extreme precipitation risk has substantially increased over the past four decades in Southern Africa and Southeast Asia, often outpacing future climate projections.

Using the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble) approach, researchers found that events once considered 100-year occurrences now occur more frequently. In cities like Phnom Penh, Bangkok, and Lusaka, extreme rainfall risk has doubled since 1981.

Critically, the study identifies “sitting duck” regions — areas with rising hazard likelihood but no recent extreme events. Much of Mozambique, the Philippines, and Laos fall into this category, where communities may lack preparedness despite increasing danger.

The findings challenge traditional disaster risk planning based on historical records. Researchers urge policymakers to integrate large-ensemble climate simulations into infrastructure design, contingency planning, and early warning systems to prepare for record-breaking events already more likely today.

Read the open-access article in Weather and Climate Extremes