Conflict, climate, and disease form convergent crises in the Greater Horn of Africa
In an article in The Conversation, Professor Emeritus Daniel Maxwell, Research Assistant Professor Merry Fitzpatrick, and co-authors identify overlapping crises in the Greater Horn of Africa — climate, disease, and violent conflict — with potentially catastrophic consequences in 2026 and 2027.
The authors examine the anticipated interaction of a strengthening El Niño formation, an Ebola outbreak, protracted conflict affecting nearly every country in the region, and a fertilizer shortage caused by the war in Iran.
Furthermore, with diminished global humanitarian response capacity, including the closure of USAID, the region is less prepared to cope with these shocks than during previous El Niño years.
The authors call for more flexible funding and policy support to strengthen local communities and organizations, whose mutual aid efforts have become even more important since the collapse of the international aid system.
Without urgent preventive action, this polycrisis threatens not just food security but civilian protection, mobility, health, nutrition, and water services.
